You've been spotted: River Days
Kings Marching Invitational
Cross country invitational
Home > Blogs > Campaigns Don't Count > Archives > 2007 > October > 05 > Entry
The Keys to the Presidency
Here are Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the Presidency” (to use the title of his first book on the subject). Refer to the post below for some background.
The keys have been used to correctly predict the outcome of every presidential election since 1984 (though there’s a dispute about 1992). And, applied retroactively, the system also accurately “predicts” the outcome of every presidential election since the Civil War, that is, in the history of the current two-party system, Ds vs. R.
If six or more of the following statements are untrue, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the popular vote.
Key 1 (Party mandate): After the last midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm election.
Key 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Key 3 (Incumbency):The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
Key 4 (Third party):There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
Key 5 (Short-term economy):The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Key 6 (Long-term economy): per-capita economic growth during the current presidential term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Key 7 (Policy change):The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Key 8 (Social unrest):There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Key 9 (Scandal):The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Key 10 (Foreign/military failure):The incumbent administration has suffered no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Key 11 (Foreign/military success):The incumbent administration has achieved a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Key 12 (Incumbent charisma):The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Key 13 (Challenger charisma):The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Permalink | | Categories: The Presidential Keys
