Campaigns Don't Count

About Campaigns Don't Count

This blog is operated by Martin Gottlieb, whose day job is with the editorial page of the Dayton Daily News. The main idea here is that the media and the media manipulators are not important players in American elections, and that this is demonstrated by the fact that presidential election outcomes can be predicted before the campaigns even start. Gottlieb is the author of "Campaigns Don't Count: How the Media Get American Politics All Wrong." (See www.campaignsdontcount.com.) That book proceeds from the work of Allan J. Lichtman, author of "The 13 Keys to the Presidency." Perhaps the best introduction to the blog is in the first posts, dated Oct. 5, 2007.

November 2007

Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat
				1	2	3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
11	12	13	14	15	16	17
18	19	20	21	22	23	24
25	26	27	28	29	30

RSS Syndication

XML Campaigns Don't Count
XML More 'DDN' feeds

More recent entries

• Is Huckabee a Special Case?
• Should Voters Be Tested?
• Can good news from Iraq change the prediction?
• A Note to New Readers
• Kristol's Crystal Ball
• Negatives, Schmegatives
• Gingrich Plan Wouldn't Work
• Whither the White Guys
• Brownback Failure Show Limited Relevance of Issues
• Mormon Issue No Problem in General Election
• More entries...

Archives

• November 23, 2007
• November 17, 2007
• November 14, 2007
• November 6, 2007
• November 5, 2007
• October 24, 2007
• October 23, 2007
• More archives...

Home > Blogs > Campaigns Don't Count > Archives > 2007 > November > 23 > Entry

Is Huckabee a Special Case?

By Martin Gottlieb | Friday, November 23, 2007, 05:25 PM

With Mike Huckabee being the intriguing political phenomenon of the moment, I’ve been asked whether there’s anything in the “keys” about a Huckabee type phenomenon.

That is, what if somebody from out of political nowhere, so to speak, comes along and slays all the big dragons in his party and becomes the nominee, developing an identity as some sort of miracle worker? Does that make him an especially strong candidate in the general election?

The short answer is no.

Longer answer: The only keys that are about a candidate’s personal characteristics are the “charisma” keys. That is, if either party puts up a candidate with a special kind of personal appeal - an appeal that somehow transcends politics, that transcends normal levels of intensity and that brings support that has nothing to do with issues - that party has an advantage.

But the charisma keys — like the keys that talk about MAJOR social unrest or MAJOR scandal or a MAJOR foreign policy success or failure — are difficult to turn.

For example, the word charismatic is often associated with Bill Clinton. But, in truth, there was no special degree of excitement about his campaigns, no larger-than-life, larger-than-politics phenomenon.

The last person to turn the charisma key was Ronald Reagan, who, no doubt about, connected with people in a very special way. He generated a form of excitement that was well beyond the norm. There was just something about him.

Before him, the last was John Kennedy. His charisma only manifested itself after the first debate with Nixon, when JFK suddenly took on a movie star quality, with the “bobby soxers” showing up at his events and swooning.

Charisma is not the only force that can turn what I’m referring to as the charisma keys. There’s also status as a “national hero.” So Dwight Eisenhower also turned one, having an appeal that was so far beyond politics that millions of people knew they would vote for him before they knew which party he belonged to.

Huckabee’s likability does not seem to put him in a class with any of these. More like Clinton, if anything.

Permalink | Comments (0) | Post your comment | Categories: The Presidential Keys