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Home > Blogs > Campaigns Don't Count > Archives > 2007 > November > 24 > Entry
Wanna Bet about ‘08 Election?
If you’re interested in the realm of election predictions, you might want to check out a project Slate, an online publication, has going. It’s following the markets where people can bet on the presidential election.
Slate’s rationale for taking this seriously is that, while the bet of any one person might not be of much interest, the majority is very frequently right. I suppose.
However, I cannot imagine that any market was betting in late 1987 and early 1988 that George H.W. Bush was going to win that election. The polls were consistently and hugely anti-Bush, and people in general are always influenced by that kind of phenomenon.
I can’t help noting, too, that Slate is proud of updating its info on how the betting markets are going EVERY HOUR. The focus of this blog, on the other hand, is on the challenge of making an early prediction and sticking with it, period.
Anyway, the Slate site is at http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008.
Permalink | Comments (1) | Categories: 2008 presidential race
Comments
By TRS
November 25, 2007 9:03 PM | Link to this
Ever check out the website which functions like a stock market? You post an “offering” of a particular political event with an opening price - if people buy it you can make a profit (you start with play money the site gives you). It sounds similiar in that if enough of a stock is sold and goes high enough, then enough people believe it will happen.