Campaigns Don't Count

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This blog is operated by Martin Gottlieb, whose day job is with the editorial page of the Dayton Daily News. The main idea here is that the media and the media manipulators are not important players in American elections, and that this is demonstrated by the fact that presidential election outcomes can be predicted before the campaigns even start. Gottlieb is the author of "Campaigns Don't Count: How the Media Get American Politics All Wrong." (See www.campaignsdontcount.com.) That book proceeds from the work of Allan J. Lichtman, author of "The 13 Keys to the Presidency." Perhaps the best introduction to the blog is in the first posts, dated Oct. 5, 2007.

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Home > Blogs > Campaigns Don't Count > Archives > 2007 > December > 07 > Entry

Mormon Issue No Problem in General Election (2)

By Martin Gottlieb | Friday, December 7, 2007, 11:18 AM

I think I made the best contribution I can make to the Romney/Mormon issue about six weeks ago. So now that’s it’s back in the news, here’s a repeat:

If the premises of this blog are right, then the only political question to be asked about Mormonism and Mitt Romney is whether the “issue” will keep him from being the nominee. If he’s the nominee, he’s over the hump.

The same can be said of Hillary’s gender, Obama’s race and Richardson’s ethnicity.

Once it comes time to actually pick a president, the decisive voters don’t want to hear about such ephemera. They want to decide whether the country needs a change from the incumbent party. This is why JFK won, despite being a member of a religious minority that was the object of much prejudice. It’s why Ronald Reagan won easily, though polls before his nomination showed him to be a weaker general-election candidate than, say, the more moderate Howard Baker. Jimmy Carter began the campaign by trying to paint Reagan as too conservative. It might have worked if the public had been satisfied with Carter. But, coming from a president widely seen as having failed, it seemed like a pathetic effort to change the subject, and Carter basically backed off.

All of which is not to say that religious identity is dead as an issue. I don’t know. All I know is, if it turns out not to be enough to keep Romney from the nomination, it will not be enough to keep him from the presidency. If the Republicans prove tolerant enough, that’s an indication that the general public is tolerant enough.

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