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Can Oprah matter? Maybe now, not later
Oprah?
Maybe. But only in the primaries.
Can we agree that the following is the conventional wisdom: Endorsements almost never matter, but Oprah’s just might be different? I think it’s fair to say that just about everybody who comments on whether she can help Obama is saying some version of that.
As a 24-year member of an editorial board that endorses candidates all the time,
I’ve developed an interest in the whole question of how much endorsements matter. I’ve concluded that there are rare occasions when things come together in a certain way. It’s not really a matter of an endorsement helping. It’s a matter of things coming together in a certain way.
1984, my first year on editorial board. Walter Mondale is marching to the Democratic nomination. Gary Hart is his last surviving challenger. If Mondale wins the Ohio primary, he’s over the top. If he loses, he will still be the nominee, but the race won’t be over right now.
Mondale’s leading substantially in the Ohio polls not long before the election. But gradually every major newspaper in the state endorses Hart. He features that fact in a last-minute ad. He wins narrowly.
I think the endorsements had the effect of legitimizing him. People thought Mondale was a respectable choice, but they weren’t excited about him. But they weren’t so sure Hart — new on the national scene that year — was even respectable. The newspaper endorsements made him respectable.
I think.
Typically, however, there’s no kind of election in which newspaper endorsements — or any other endorsements — matter less than a presidential. That’s one in which people get so much input from so many sources that no one source is important. And, anyway, it’s one in which people want to make up their own minds. We’re not talking about the school board, here.
Things have to come together in a certain way.
I can imagine that happening for Obama. His appeal seems to be coming alive itself, even without help from Oprah. But she brings a special degree of media attention, which focuses attention on the crowds she also brings, and the special excitement.
So, maybe, especially if something else somehow undermines Hillary.
After all, the views that most people have about the merits of different candidates for the same nomination tend to be weakly held.. I know the polls are saying that Democrats are more committed to Hillary than the Republicans are to anybody. But nobody is ant-Obama. There’s give.
Anyway, once the general comes around, Oprah is irrelevant. Then it’s down to whether the country wants change or stability. Then Oprah is just a Democrat endorsing a Democrat, which is the nearest thing to nothing. Then few people will be undecided, and it’s only when people are undecided that endorsements can work. And those that are undecided will have known all along that she’s for him, and will, by definition, not have been moved by that. And, anyway, he will not longer need her to generate big crowds. No, this is her moment.
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