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Where we stand:
This post came in from Tom Q., for the string below this one. But I think it merits its own string. (It also merits paragraph separations, which are not possible in responses to posts.)
I will respond.
He says:
Okay, to move beyond the charisma question, a few other thoughts:
1) Whether you think the number of Keys lost this cycle is 7, 8 (including recession) or 9 (including charisma), it’s an easy call. Yet out there in journalism/blogosphere land, there’s widespread “McCain surging/Obama doomed!” feeling.
Some of it is promoted by must-stay-tuned TV execs; some of it is Eeyore Democrats who’ve been too recently disappointed. But mostly it’s people who believe in Polls Uber Alles — the folks who thought Dukakis was “way ahead” in ‘88, or that Carter was going to pull it out in 1980.
That McCain has come even in polls in the immediate aftermath of his convention is no great shakes even if you believe in polls — Carter was high single-digits ahead of Reagan in the same time-frame. I do look forward to the November post-mortems, when all these people tell us what the “key moment” was, when Obama “reversed the momentum” and “took back the race”.
2) Actually, there’s one person out there who seems to understand the reality pretty well, and that’s Obama himself. It seems everyone is screaming he “must” Attack-attack-attack, go after Palin, scream at McCain — yet he resists all the hysteria and keeps on keeping on. I think he sees as I (and I presume you) do: the McCain campaign is doing the sleazy defense lawyer thing — throwing up every bit of smoke and mirrors they can muster to cloud the facts, and dazzling the court reporters with his style.
But Obama knows he’s the DA who can walk into final arguments, show conclusively incriminating video-tape, and get a conviction from the jury in two hours.
3) Again, however many Keys fall this year: Can you ever remember an election where so many Keys were at least under consideration to fall? Usually 3 or 4 are utterly off-limits in even the worst circumstances (as in Carter’s case: incumbency, long-term economy, scandal, foreign policy success).
This second Bush term has been so horrific, almost everything is at least worth glancing at — Libby, Gonzales and Katrina for scandal, the muddled GOP primary for contest, even (potentially) Bob Barr drawing off a few third-party points. None of these Keys fall, I agree — but they’re not quite slam-dunks, either. Truly, social unrest is the only undebatably positive Key they can claim.
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Comments
By Jeff
September 12, 2008 7:41 PM | Link to this
Lichtman, in the 1990 edition of his book, identifies subsystems of keys that are also fairly reliable, such as the four political keys. Some of the “subsystems” turn for McCain, depending on the interpretation. Also worth noting is that Lichtman (if I recall this right) says the economics keys are not necessarily good predictors by themselves.By Tom Q
September 15, 2008 10:27 AM | Link to this
Well, I’d say the answer to my question — What will the pundits say “reversed” the election and enabled Obama to “come from behind”? — is all over your front page today. Recession is no longer in question; the only issue is whether we reach full-blown panic. It’s inconceivable a party could hold the White House in such circumstances.