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Award-winning columnist Tom Archdeacon — an old-school storyteller in a brand-new venue — writes about sports, the city, southwest Ohio and anything else that catches his fancy… or yours.Home > Blogs > Through the Arch > Archives > 2008 > May > 03
Saturday, May 3, 2008
BLOG:The Madness that will decide the Derby
LOUISVILLE — One trainer worries about the “carnage.”
One talks about the 150,000 screaming people and the big, caroming, colliding, kicking bodies.
Another says, “It’s in the hands of The Almighty.”
Many say it will decide the outcome of today’s great 20-horse race.
They’re all talking about the First Turn of the Kentucky Derby.
“With 150,000 screaming fans on both sides and the 20 of you going into that tight turn,” said Colonel John trainer Eoin Harty, “it just doesn’t happen any place else — except maybe Talladega.”
When the starting gates open for today’s race, five front-running colts all relegated to outside posts — including Derby-favorite Big Brown in the farthest 20 gate — will veer to their left and race each other full bore to the rail as the rest of the field comes charging straight up at them.
The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles long, but the race may be settled in the first couple of hundred yards said jockey Kent Desormeaux, who has won the roses twice — with Real Quiet and Fusaichi Pegasus — and today is on Big Brown:
“Everyone talks about the last quarter-mile of the Derby, but the race is really won in the first quarter-mile. There are dozens of snap decisions to make between the gate and the first turn. If I make a mistake on the run to the turn, my chances of winning end there.”
Breaking from post 10, Harty’s colt won’t be part of the early dash from the outside, but he agreed the fate of every horse is decided by that first turn:
“If (the outside speed horses) break well, it’s obvious they’re going to go one way and cross over in front of the field to make the first turn in front. Hopefully, we can avoid all that carnage.
“If those speed horses don’t break as fast as they like and they are hustled to the lead, there might be a logjam going into the first turn.
“I think the race is going to be dictated by what happens there, about who can get in and out of the first turn in one piece.”
Bob Black Jack, who holds the world record for six furlongs, may get on the rail first because he breaks from the No. 13 hole.
“It’s going to be interesting,” said his trainer, James Kasparoff. “You’d like to think your colt can overcome a little trouble, but in reality, if we’re not quick and relaxed out of the gate, it’s not going to go well for us.”
Michael Matz — who trained the beloved Barbaro to a 6 1/2 length victory in the 2006 Derby and has Visionaire today — felt the same way:
“This horse is going to have to come through some traffic. I’m just hoping we can get around the first turn fine and get in a spot where he can be put in a position to use the stretch. That’s all you can ask for.”
Desormeaux guided Big Brown to a wire-to-wire victory In the Florida Derby after breaking from farthest No. 12 post, but he said that was much different than the Kentucky Derby.
He said he had 50 feet to get to the first turn at Gulfsteam Park, while here at Churchill he has 5/16ths of a mile:
“I’m going to break as quiet as a church mouse and try to reel (Big Brown) in and get him to his maximum cruising speed. If you want me to guess, I might be third or fourth sitting on the outside going into the first turn. That’s my guess. But if Big Brown is just cantering alone, I’ll let him carry me to the lead.”
Although he doesn’t have a horse in the race this year, trainer D. Wayne Lukas — who has had a record 42 Derby starters and has won here four times — said the first turn is a rude education for most horses.
As he told reporters the other day, many horses are getting dirt kicked in their faces for the first time, they’re getting bounced around like never before and there’s that cacophony from the 150,000 roaring fans:
“This is one heck of a place to have to learn those lessons, but you have to if you’re going to be the real deal.”
Desormeaux admits that lightly-raced Big Brown — winner of all three of his career races by a combined 29 lengths — has never had dirt kicked in his face and — while he doesn’t think that will be the case — if it should occur, “I don’t know what will happen.”
As Harty put it: “It’s in the hands of the Almighty when you get there.”
